Expectancy

    Trading Expectancy Calculator (R-Multiple Edge)

    Discover your mathematical edge in the markets. Learn if your trading setup will make money in the long term, and understand the payout value of each trade you place.

    Calculator Inputs

    Configure your system metrics.

    50%

    Provide this to calculate projected net P&L over this number of trades.

    Mathematical Edge

    Expectancy per Trade

    +₹2,500
    Positive Expectancy SystemYour trading setup has a statistical edge. Over a large enough sample of trades, this strategy is highly likely to generate net profits.
    Edge in R-Multiples

    0.25R

    Every trade risks 1R to return an average of 0.25R.

    Risk-Reward Ratio

    1 : 1.5

    Average payout ratio.

    How to use this tool

    1. 01

      Select your preferred units: Currency (₹) for absolute values or Percent (%) for relative gains.

    2. 02

      Enter your strategy's average Win Rate percentage (based on historical or backtested trades).

    3. 03

      Input your Average Win size and your Average Loss size (enter average loss as a positive value).

    4. 04

      Optionally, input a Trade Sample Size to see your projected cumulative P&L over that sample.

    5. 05

      Review the expectancy output: verify your edge in units, check the R-multiple value, and read the verdict.

    Expectancy & System Edge Formulas

    The expectancy calculation represents the mathematical average payout of your system:

    Loss Rate % = 100% - Win Rate %
    Expectancy (per trade) = (Win Rate % * Average Win) - (Loss Rate % * Average Loss)
    Expectancy (in R-multiples) = Expectancy (per trade) / Average Loss
    Where Average Loss is calculated as a positive value.
    Projected P&L = Expectancy (per trade) * Trade Sample Size

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What does trading expectancy mean?

    Trading expectancy is the average net profit (or loss) you expect to make on each trade you place, over a large series of trades. A positive expectancy means your strategy is profitable, while a negative expectancy means your system loses money over time.

    Why is expectancy more important than win rate?

    A high win rate does not guarantee profitability. For example, a trader with a 90% win rate who wins ₹1,000 on average but loses ₹15,000 on average has a negative expectancy (-₹600/trade). Conversely, a trader with a 35% win rate who wins ₹4,000 on average and loses ₹1,000 on average has a highly positive expectancy (+₹750/trade).

    What is expectancy in 'R-multiples'?

    R-multiple expectancy represents your average return per trade relative to the unit of risk (1R) you take. If your expectancy is 0.35R, it means that for every ₹1,000 you risk, you statistically expect to return ₹350 in profit per trade over the long run.

    How does the trade sample size impact expectancy?

    Expectancy is a statistical average. In a small sample (e.g., 5 or 10 trades), random distribution can make a bad system look great or a great system look bad due to luck. As your trade sample size increases (e.g., 50 to 100 trades), your actual results will align with your mathematical expectancy.

    Check out our other trading calculators

    Position Size Calculator

    Work out your exact risk and shares/lots to buy before entering a trade.

    Risk-Reward Calculator

    Determine risk-reward ratios and minimum required win rates.

    Calculate Every Trade Automatically

    Stop copying values manually. WickLog syncs your actual trades from Zerodha, Dhan, Groww and Angel One, and calculates win rate, profit factor, expectancy and net P&L after charges automatically.

    Create Your Free Account

    Free plan available · No credit card required